Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 4.030890 4.730088 5.503833 6.422078 7.480546 8.660795 10.074967
2025-09-14 2.897174 3.818548 4.949367 6.432397 8.318429 10.628527 13.663226
2025-09-21 2.200476 3.199941 4.537858 6.443682 9.069531 12.537915 17.439409
2025-09-28 1.737581 2.751558 4.214089 6.449028 9.742522 14.373925 21.323699
2025-10-05 1.552217 2.642039 4.315831 7.027743 11.251977 17.503940 27.352693
2025-10-12 1.334449 2.428915 4.210136 7.254873 12.242178 19.971091 32.686811
2025-10-19 1.163850 2.253389 4.123234 7.478826 13.230222 22.517860 38.399478
2025-10-26 0.996561 2.047161 3.943695 7.507498 13.881388 24.577156 43.533346
2025-11-02 0.826330 1.799601 3.645930 7.274577 14.037375 25.812585 47.408954
2025-11-09 0.673768 1.554490 3.308679 6.910417 13.896315 26.500068 50.386753
2025-11-16 0.574775 1.399147 3.116748 6.787957 14.172642 27.932495 54.794083
2025-11-23 0.497120 1.274019 2.963842 6.716069 14.527468 29.529533 59.637731
2025-11-30 0.455782 1.226181 2.970887 6.985341 15.613334 32.653214 67.732541
2025-12-07 0.402096 1.137943 2.875702 7.023796 16.235567 34.955168 74.503388
2025-12-14 0.354864 1.055624 2.779864 7.045656 16.823953 37.249331 81.487977
2025-12-21 0.313540 0.979531 2.685306 7.054841 17.382798 39.535552 88.673627
2025-12-28 0.309236 1.004613 2.843347 7.684866 19.407915 45.080715 103.097941
2026-01-04 0.286034 0.970413 2.844888 7.932044 20.579472 48.910880 114.246384
2026-01-11 0.264952 0.937849 2.845156 8.175442 21.769496 52.891804 126.071016
2026-01-18 0.237868 0.880357 2.767951 8.206639 22.448471 55.795084 135.787580
2026-01-25 0.204417 0.793957 2.594190 7.953687 22.389363 57.007074 141.826001
2026-02-01 0.171378 0.700142 2.381085 7.558085 21.913590 57.194324 145.532475
2026-02-08 0.150296 0.642941 2.267218 7.425023 22.105350 58.984433 153.125658